Research

DECK: Together We Fly Higher - 07/29/25

For all the fear about the Deckers story being “over” since the stock’s peak at ~$225 just earlier this year, there certainly seems to be an increasing number of constructive data points from the company. Bears are forced to rally around the 3% decline in the U.S. (vs. flat in 4Q24) as they no longer find support from prior criticisms du jour such as “HOKA is barely growing double digits” or “peak UGG”. We took a deeper look into three of the largest topics of discussion to arise from 1Q25 earnings, including the product transition, U.S. weakness, and international expansion. Further, we analyze the new Street consensus estimates, which largely appear as if no thought was put into them at all. We currently see a realistic 2025 EPS range of $6.55 to $7.25 and are much more positively biased than the current sell-side consensus of $6.26. Ultimately, we see substantial upside to the stock from current levels as the core business (ex. tariff) has already seemed to inflect and even the topic of tariffs themselves appear largely derisked on a relative basis to many peers.