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Nike

Ticker: NKE

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Nike: Pigs At The Trough Often Get Slaughtered - 7/2/2025

Nike’s management is calling the trough in its business following 4Q25 as results are expected improve from here. We dug into product commentary from the call and also critically assessed how consensus numbers shook out, which matters more than ever given they are not providing guidance beyond the forward quarter. Net takeaway for the latter is we currently see a realistic FY26 EPS range of $1.35 to $1.80 but are more negatively biased than the sell-side consensus of $1.65.

Nike Distribution Needs A “Personal Genie” - 2/10/2025

Distribution is the single largest challenge at Nike today. Many seem to think the only issue is innovation and certainly they can improve in that regard. But while it is likely true that innovation solves most problems (i.e. “hot” product often finds a way to sell itself), a company the size of Nike needs both of those engines to run at full steam. Bulls like to think that all Nike needs to do is launch some innovation and everything returns to normal. But what if their distribution problems are largely structural?

The Potential Nike Turnaround - 8/14/2024

This is not yet another negative Nike note. By now we have all likely read some of the ample Nike thought pieces that discuss the problems that John Donahoe is clearly responsible for. I am happy that everyone is coming out of the woodworks to share information. I didn't even know some of the background that is public today when I wrote Nike & John Donahoe back in mid- April. Alas, that is the perpetual problem of being a sell-side analyst; we always have a small subset of information to base our opinions on. Rather, I strongly feel now is the time to start thinking about the potential Nike recovery path.

Nike & John Donahoe - 4/14/2024

I never understood the thought process behind John Donahoe becoming CEO of Nike. I (luckily) maintained my buy rating on the stock at the time because there wasn't much he could do to change their innovation pipeline at that point, but I certainly flagged my concerns to investors in our discussions regarding longer term risk/reward.

Also, by 2019 most hedge funds had already been burnt shorting Nike in late 2018 so there was likely never going to be meaningful selling pressure for the foreseeable future. And I didn't have a catalyst to point to. Just my unease with John's background. So with that, let's talk about how John Donahoe tried to blame Nike's lack of innovation on remote working last Friday.