ONON
On
Our take
On has been among the fastest-growing brands in athletic footwear, carried by distinctive product and a premium position. Sustaining that pace means succeeding in apparel and building out its own stores, areas that have historically proved difficult. Our work asks whether On's innovation engine and direct-to-consumer push can carry it into the next phase of scale.
Financial model
Updated: June 11, 2026
Research
Store checks at athletic retailers in Hong Kong and Japan: HOKA, On and Arc'teryx look strong while Nike is heavily discounted in Japan.
Why On needs its own stores to succeed in apparel, since wholesale rarely explains innovative clothing to shoppers.
Can On keep 20%+ growth beyond 2026? A look at its young direct-to-consumer business and friction with wholesale partners.
Fourth semi-annual mall channel check: softer traffic, tighter promotions, and who is winning in athleisure.
Rising wholesale promotions are an early warning for On, while China acceleration and apparel are its main offsets.
Postmortems
Well it had to happen at some point: On finally feels pressure from the “heavily promotional environment”. Clearly management previously thought the brand an immune unicorn or else they wouldn’t be guiding revenue down today.
David tells an amazing story about how athletic brands are going to crush life going forward. The “movement class” is the future and they have a desire for vitality.
First the bad. Not only did they miss the Americas revenue consensus estimate, but they also barely had double digit growth to begin with and everybody remembers what happened to Deckers (DECK) after domestic revenue growth cracked that level.
Hard to poke holes in a consumer company that raises guidance like this against a challenged macro-environment backdrop. Key point they made on call was this isn’t just flowthrough but rather they now have increased 2H25 expectations.