DECK
Deckers
Our take
Deckers cut its revenue guidance rather than discount its way to the number, and we think it will get more credit for that once the promotional cycle passes. The bigger story is HOKA going below $120 with Fly Pace in January, a necessary step to reach a much larger pool of runners as long as it stays in sporting goods.
Financial model
Updated: October 31, 2026
Research
HOKA's new $115 Fly Pace shoe and what going below $120 means, with a price comparison of the cheapest running shoe at every major brand.
Store visits in Hong Kong and Japan support Deckers' call for faster international growth in the second half for HOKA and UGG.
Every bear worry from last year proved wrong, yet Deckers stock hasn't moved despite about 20% higher earnings.
Store checks at athletic retailers in Hong Kong and Japan: HOKA, On and Arc'teryx look strong while Nike is heavily discounted in Japan.
Deckers is back to beating conservative guidance; we test whether UGG is becoming a year-round brand.
Deckers is down about 65% from its high, but a review of promotions suggests HOKA and UGG remain healthy brands.
After 1Q25, we dig into Deckers' product transition, US weakness and international expansion, plus a shaky new Street consensus.
Postmortems
Double digit revenue growth with 20%+ EBIT margins and the stock trades at 13x on sandbagged earnings? Can the bears remind me once again why they hate this stock?
Global Hoka and Ugg performance exceeded expectations and was “exceptional” with balanced growth across DTC and wholesale. Americas accelerated.
As much as people want to penalize the company on domestic sales being down, the trend got sequentially better (just like management said would happen) and international continues to grow at an exceptionally impressive rate despite having the best result in years last quarter.
Oh snap. We have a company that trades at 17x FY1 earnings that is growing sales at 17% and continues to blow out EPS estimates by 20%+ every single quarter, has an EBIT margin north of 20%, and is buying back a ton of stock (with a ton of cash on balance sheet).