NKE · Always free
Nike
Our take
Nike remains the industry's center of gravity, but recent years exposed gaps in product, distribution and competitive intensity that rivals have been quick to exploit. The turnaround under Elliott Hill is real work, not a quick fix. We attempt to separate genuine progress from temporary levers, and ask where Nike can still defend its leadership.
Financial model
Updated: October 12, 2026
Research
Sizing Nike's Pace restructuring against 2009 and 2023, what Nike's sheer size means for growth, and a look at regional inventory and the dividend.
Store checks at athletic retailers in Hong Kong and Japan: HOKA, On and Arc'teryx look strong while Nike is heavily discounted in Japan.
Nike's soft World Cup push in soccer risks handing US ground to Adidas just as the tournament comes to America.
Is Nike's North America recovery real, or bought with heavy marketing spend funded by layoffs and constant reorganizing?
Fourth semi-annual mall channel check: softer traffic, tighter promotions, and who is winning in athleisure.
Where Nike's turnaround stands on distribution and product, and why the new Sport Offense structure won't pay off before FY27.
Management called the bottom after 4Q25; we test whether Nike's turnaround is really underway.
Distribution, not just innovation, is Nike's biggest problem today, and it may be structural rather than quickly fixable.
Moving past the Donahoe blame game to map out what a realistic Nike recovery path could look like.
Why the Donahoe hire never made sense, and his attempt to blame Nike's innovation slump on remote work.
Postmortems
“The real story isn’t the celebration. The real story is everything it took to get there.”
End of day they beat on revenue because of depressed expectations in China and APLA but missed in critical North America and EMEA regions that were supposed to be leading indicators of the turnaround.
Every region (and Converse) except for North America missed consensus revenue expectations with China the most notable shortfall.