We don't purport to be weathermen, but the simple fact is it's almost halfway through November and NYC, Chicago, and even the wonderful Orange County, California have all been warmer than average. There increasingly seems to be a massive disconnect between how cold weather companies talk about the potential weather impact this year and what is actually happening. We believe that is likely due to internal corporate forecasting practices that largely just assume an average weather environment. It is a well-known bear thesis, but that doesn't mean the market is actively thinking about it at this moment. At the same time, it seems like Columbia Sportswear has found a way to win its mojo back, yet management is planning for a normal winter, which is exactly what it did three years ago right before the warmest winter on record. This note looks at how Project Accelerate is getting that mojo back, and why a warm winter could turn near-term risk into a potential opportunity.
Upon Further Review: Columbia (11/10/26)
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